Next week @ Markets (7)
All Time Highs again , 26k coming ?? Analysis for the week ( 16 Sep - 20 Sep )
"You can’t predict. You can prepare." - Harvard Marks
Hey folks!
What’s up ?? Maja ma !
so , analysis prarambh krte hai !!
This week was a Bullish week , We achieved new All Time Highs
On Monday , CNX500 (see fig 1) opened gap down and we saw a straight recovery from the bottom
On Tuesday , we saw a follow through ( confirming the reversal ) of the previous day
On Wednesday , we saw a selling red candle ( it was a trap candle ) and took support at 20EMA
On Thursday , Index opened gap up and at the end of the day , we finally saw a big green candle ( 196% ( white in my charts ) ) squeezing all the shorts made on Wednesday ( Squeeze means showing a weak selling first and then a strong buying comes in and cut the SL of all the sellers ) and achieving the new All Time Highs
On Friday , Index remained inside a small range
See more detailed view on 25 min chart ( Figure 2 ).
The Index has broken the All Time Highs and an uptrend is confirmed by Index
The current support of the Index would be at 10EMA , everything is safe above 10EMA
On the 25min chart , CNX500 (see fig 2) has now turned strong , Thursday’s bullish candle confirmed the up move.
On Monday Index opened gap down and by the afternoon buyers came in and closed above 20EMA
On Tuesday , we saw a follow through of the previous day ( showing we are not f***ing going down )
On Wednesday , Sellers try to overtake the buyers but at the end of the day buyers safely closed the index at 23500 (a round no. )
On Thursday , buyers made people believe that they are weak but at the EOD (End of day) , they got onto drugs and we reached the ATH ( To the moon…..)
On Friday , Both buyers and sellers fought for the move ( Just like John Cena and The Rock ) , but buyers didn’t let the sellers take the command and we closed near the open.
We are currently in the safe zone ( above 10EMA )
N50 ( bade abba ji ) :
N50 (see fig 3) had continuously moved up for 2 weeks (with 0 red bars , shows over bullishness ) up by 5% and was down by 2% last week ( A pullback before a 2nd leg ) and again achieved new highs this week
At the start of the week , There were 2 reversal candles which confirmed the Pullback and in the whole week we were strong and closed above 20
imo “Nifty is getting ready for a big movement and this leg before pullback was the first leg and now second leg is starting , also large caps are setting good on charts ”
On Friday , N50 closed good and near the ATH , we can see some amount of selling at ONP but the anticipation is for a bullish move
Talking about the choti topi (small caps)…..…..
SMCAP250 ( see figure 4 ) was bullish last week but this week the momentum had started to fade away (as compared to other indices)
On Monday Index closed below previous close , while other closed above previous close (buyers are weak in smallcaps) and the next 3 days it remained range bound ( with Thursday candle 68% (very small compared to N50 and CNX500 ) , other indices rose ~2% on Thursday )
Buying has weakened in SMCAP250 and it looks the Institutions are shifting from Small caps to Large caps ( had already mentioned in Next Week @ Markets ( 5 ) )
My trades are mostly into large caps ( Margin of safety in this choppy market and Good setups too )
Read the previous week newsletter here :
Stocks above their EMAs
% Stocks above their was weak on Monday but since Tuesday it is continuously Trending up up up (Just like SpaceX’s Rocket)
% stocks Above 10 and 20 EMA was very weak on last Friday but have turned strong ( 60% and 57% ) and we can see good PBA/PBCs ( Pullback anticipation / Pullback Confirmation ) moves in the stocks
The momentum is turning strong and up trending
If you have stocks which are at 10/20EMAs , Look for PBC re-entries into them
Breakout are now working as good for now , I will be shifting towards Pullbacks / Inside Bars
Stock above ALL EMAs ( 20,60,120,240 )
% Stocks above all EMAs has reversed from the 60% levels and major stocks are now sustaining their short term ( 10/20 )EMAs , we can see good reversal moves (Momentum is sustaining and stock are not losing their levels )
Net 4% was good overall (neither too Weak nor too Strong ) ( Stocks are gaining their momentum again , and it looks the momentum will continue to sustain for upcoming few days ) ) (Breadth is sustaining and improving slowly )
Stocks creating new 52W has been strong during the week , stock are moving upwards ( Stocks have again started making new highs and many of them are sustaining at their 52W highs)
% of stocks closing positive was worsened on Friday last week but this whole week almost 60% stocks closed positive ( Breadth is healthy and sustaining )
The % of stocks closing > open was also good ( Broader market is still not fully supporting the momentum and many stocks are still going down from their open )
For positional and swing traders:
Positional Traders: Reversal is confirmed for now , can look for good positional bets , Have personally observed many charts setting up good (check financial services , Tyres , REs)
Swing Traders: For swing traders breakout are not working well and market is playing chop chop ….
I am turning biased towards Pullback Entries ( Pullbacks are working good and also Low risk entries are in favour )
Check this Masterclass by
on Pullbacks :
Sectors to watch :
SSS ( Showing Strength Sectors ) : Telecom , Auto , Realty ( Most to least )
SSS ( Still Strong Sectors ) : Financial Services , Pharma , Oils , Plyboards , Metals , IT , Finance , Services ( Most to least )
SSS ( Struggling and Sluggish sectors ) : Quick Service Restaurant , Defense , Banks ( Most to least )
Industries to Watch :
SSI ( Showing strength Industries ) : Textiles , Electrodes - Graphite , Tyres , Housing Finance , Electronics - Components , Castings & Forgings , Photographic & Allied Products ( Most to least )
SSI ( Still Strong Industries ) : Fasteners , Diamond Cutting - Jewellery , ACs , Steel - Sponge Iron , Transport - Airlines , Computers , Pharmaceuticals , Breweries & Distilleries ( Most to least )
SSI ( Struggling and Sluggish Industries ) : Banks - Public sector , Cables - Telephone , Power generation and Supply , Leather Products , Banks - Private Sector , Pesticides / Agrochemical ( Most to least )
Highlights
Bias is Bullish for upcoming weeks now until the indices are above 10EMA
Money is shifting towards good fundamental and defensive sectors , Trade only strong sectors / Turning Strong
Breadth is Improving and sustaining
That’s all for Today
See y’all next time !
Your friend
madxg
Disclaimer : This is not a buy/sell recommendation